NEW YORK—Our minds might be on Thanksgiving right now, but the winter holidays are right around the corner—and the retail industry needs to be ready. At the end of October, the National Retail Federation (NRF) shared its outlook for the 2024 holiday spending season, reporting that consumer spending is expected to reach a new record of $902 per person on average across gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal purchases. The NRF said this figure is about $25 per person more than last year’s, and $16 per person higher than the previous record, which was set in 2019. This consumer study, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, surveyed 8,191 adult consumers about their holiday shopping plans. It was conducted Oct. 1-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points, the NRF said.

The NRF noted that the increase in spending is largely due to gifts for loved ones; about $641 of those $902 will be spent on gifts for family, friends, co-workers and more, an increase from $620 in 2023. That leaves about $261, which will be spent on other seasonal purchases like food, décor and more.

Importantly, the NRF’s research said that 92 percent of U.S. adults plan to celebrate the winter holidays (Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa) this year. This number, which is in line with 2023, underscores just how vital this season is for retailers and the economy—winter holiday shopping and celebrating is something that nearly everyone is involved in.

 
NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights Katherine Cullen said, “The winter holidays are a treasured time for Americans, and they are prioritizing spending on family this holiday season. Despite the shorter window of time between Thanksgiving and Christmas, retailers are prepared to meet the needs of consumers by providing holiday shoppers with earlier deals and sales and by ensuring inventory is available for the most in-demand items this year.”

When it comes to where people are shopping, the results vary, especially based on age group. As in past years, most people want to shop online, with 57 percent of consumers saying they will purchase their holiday gifts online. Discount stores and thrift shops are also becoming a more popular place to buy gifts. Prosper’s executive’ vice president of strategy Phil Rist said, “While most consumers will opt to shop at traditional retailers this holiday season, many younger consumers, between the ages of 18 to 24, will also head to thrift stores and resale shops. Secondhand and refurbished gifts appeal to this age group’s desire to save money and be more sustainable.”

Visit the NRF’s website for a full breakdown of the study—and don’t forget to enjoy this holiday season, no matter how you celebrate.

Graph via National Retail Federation