As inflation continues to ease and the Federal Reserve ponders when to lower interest rates, the nation is in a “critical moment” of waiting to see what will happen next, according to National Retail Federation chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. His comments appeared in the July issue of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review, which said year-over-year gross domestic product growth dropped from 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 1.4 percent in the first quarter this year, reaching its lowest point since the spring of 2022. A key contributor to the deceleration was slower consumer activity—a goal of high interest rates intended to tame inflation without causing a recession, the Monthly Economic Review noted.

“Today we’re waiting once again,” Kleinhenz said, referring to a point in 2017 when economists were waiting to see if fast economic growth and low unemployment would cause an increase in inflation. “Much like 2017, the economy is going strong, and the labor market is still relatively tight. But this time we’re waiting for inflation to come down—and we’re also waiting for the Federal Reserve to decide on when to lower interest rates.”

As it has over the past two years, the Federal Reserve must balance using high interest rates to reduce inflation with the risk that keeping rates too high for too long could slow the economy to the point of recession, the Monthly Economic Review said.

 
 Jack Kleinhenz. Image courtesy of National Retail Federation
“We’re at a critical moment as consumers, businesses, investors and others wait to learn how they will need to adjust their plans for future economic conditions,” Kleinhenz said. “Fortunately, the risks for monetary policy look balanced at the moment.”

Year-over-year inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, dropped from 3.4 percent in the first quarter to 2.6 percent in May, the second month of the second quarter, according to the report. Most inflation came in the price of services, which were up 3.9 percent in May; prices for goods were down 0.1 percent.

“The Fed likely welcomed data that showed household income, spending and saving were all healthy in May, demonstrating that the economy is growing at a slower-but-steady pace,” Kleinhenz said. “The U.S. economy looks resilient enough for the Fed to wait and has afforded the Fed time to do so.”

Disposable personal income was up 3.7 percent year over year in May while personal consumption was up 5.1 percent and the savings rate rose to 3.9 percent, its highest level in four months, according to the Monthly Economic Review. In addition, the labor market “continues to display resilience” and has driven income growth ahead of inflation, Kleinhenz said. Employment rebounded strongly in May with a gain of 272,000 jobs following a 165,000-job increase in April. Average monthly job gains through May were 248,000, just under the 2023 average of 251,000, the Monthly Economic Review noted.

The June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey revealed concerns about the effect of high prices and slowing wage growth on families’ finances but said that consumers were confident inflation will continue to moderate.