Job losses have disproportionately affected minorities, women, younger workers, and workers with lower educational attainment or income, according to a McKinsey analysis of the U.S. Census Current Population Survey (CPS) as of November 2020.

The McKinsey study found that:

• Black and Hispanic workers faced 1.6 to 2.0 times the unemployment rates of their white counterparts.
• Households with less than $30,000 in annual income faced double the unemployment rates of higher-income households.
• Women have accounted for nearly 56 percent of workforce exits since the start of the pandemic, despite making up just 48 percent of the workforce.

McKinsey noted that these effects build on one another—the economic fallout is even greater for individuals who belong to two or more affected segments.

Looking forward, the situation continues to look challenging. Based on scenarios developed in partnership with Oxford Economics, the recovery for minorities, women, and workers with lower educational attainment or income is likely to trail recovery for their counterparts by 18 to 24 months. The return to employment appears most dire for workers earning less than $25,000 annually and those with less than a high-school education—the only two demographic groups unlikely to recover to prepandemic employment by the end of 2024.

Given the extensive disruption to employment, an inclusive recovery depends on the ability of vulnerable workers to return to work safely, gain new skills where needed, and find stable new jobs where possible, according to McKinsey. Overarching strategies, such as providing expanded unemployment benefits and front-loading near-term capital projects, may help ease overall unemployment, but interventions must address specific employment barriers for heavily affected segments. For example, workers without a college degree may need additional training and skills-based credentials to transition to new career pathways. These interventions should also consider how the pandemic’s acceleration of existing trends related to the future of work, including the shift to technology-enabled operating models, will affect workers and skill requirements beyond the immediate future, the company concludes.