The United Nations has released its World Population Prospects 2024: Summary Results which reveals that the world’s population is expected to peak in the mid-2080s, reaching nearly 10.3 billion people, up from the current 8.2 billion people. Once the population figures have reached their peak, the population is then expected to retract to 10.2 billion by the year 2100, which is 6 percent lower than the 700 million originally forecast a decade ago.

“The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years,” said Li Junhua, UN under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs. “In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions. The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption. However, slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person.”

An earlier population peak is the result of several factors, according to the UN, including lower fertility rates in the world’s largest countries. New data shows that women are having one child fewer than they did in 1990. The result is a live birth per woman rate well below 2.1, the level required to maintain population growth over the long term without migration.

The report shows that nearly a fifth of all countries are now experiencing “ultra-low” fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman. According to the UN, 63 countries have seen a peak in their population including China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation, with a further decline of 14 percent expected over the next 30 years.

Additionally, 48 countries and areas, including Brazil, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Türkiye and Vietnam, are expected to see their populations peak between 2025 and 2054. In the remaining 126 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States, the report found that the population is expected to increase through 2054 and, potentially, will peak in the second half of the century or later.

Rapid growth is expected in nine countries including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger and Somalia, doubling between 2024 and 2054.

Despite dropping birth rates, mortality rates have decreased, and life expectancy has increased significantly over the past 30 years. After a brief decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, the UN noted that global life expectancy at birth is rising again, reaching 73.3 years in 2024, up from 70.9 years during the pandemic. By the late 2050s, more than half of all global deaths will occur at age 80 or higher, a substantial increase from 17 percent in 1995.

By the late 2070s, the UN reports, the number of persons aged 65 years or older is projected to surpass the number of children under the age of 18. Meanwhile, the number of persons aged 80 and higher is projected to be larger than the number of infants by the mid-2030s. Even in countries that are still growing rapidly and have relatively youthful populations, the UN predicts the number of persons aged 65 or older is still expected to rise over the next 30 years.