Potential tariffs are sparking a surge of imports at the nation’s ports, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. 

“Supply chains are complex. Retailers continue to engage in diversification efforts,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Unfortunately, it takes significant time to move supply chains, even if you can find available capacity. While we support the need to address the fentanyl crisis at our borders, new tariffs on China and other countries will mean higher prices for American families.” 

He added that retailers have engaged in mitigation strategies to minimize the potential impact of tariffs, including front-loading of some products, but that can lead to increased challenges because of added warehousing and related costs. “We hope to resolve our outstanding border security issues as quickly as possible because there will be a significant impact on the economy if increased tariffs are maintained and expanded,” Gold said.

The Global Tracker Report found that retailers have been front-loading imports of key products for several months to prepare for the potential East Coast/Gulf Coast port strike in January and to avoid potential tariffs from President Donald Trump. 

Earlier in February, Trump announced tariffs of 25 percent on most goods from Canada and Mexico and 10 percent on goods from China. The Canadian and Mexican tariffs were suspended for 30 days, but the China tariffs took effect as planned on February 4.  

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said tariffs on Canada and Mexico would initially have minimal impact at ports because most imports from either country move by truck, rail or pipeline. In the long term, however, he said that tariffs on goods that receive final manufacturing in Canada or Mexico but originate elsewhere could prompt an increase in direct maritime imports to the U.S. 

“At this stage, the situation is fluid, and it’s too early to know if the tariffs will be implemented, removed or further delayed,” Hackett said. “As such, our view of North American imports has not changed significantly for the next six months.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.14 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) or one 20-foot container or its equivalent, in December, although the Port of New York and New Jersey and the Port of Miami have yet to report final data. That was down 0.9 percent from November but up 14.4 percent year over year and would be the busiest December on record.

According to the Global Port Tracker, December brought 2024 to a total of 25.5 million TEUs, up 14.8 percent from 2023 and the highest level since 2021’s record of 25.8 million TEUs during the pandemic.

January numbers have not been reported yet, however, it is projected that the month will see 2.11 million TEUs, up 7.8 percent year over year. 

In the past, the NRF noted, February is traditionally the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China. Therefore, the NRF forecasts the month to show 1.96 million TEUs, up 0.2 percent year over year. March is forecast at 2.14 million TEUs, up 11.1 percent year over year; April at 2.18 million TEUs, up 8.2 percent; May at 2.19 million TEUs, up 5.4 percent, and June at 2.13 million TEUs, down 0.6 percent.