A potential East Coast/Gulf Coast port strike and possible tariff increases planned by President-elect Donald Trump may push import volumes up at major port containers across the U.S. according to the latest Global Port Tracker. 

“October’s strike lasted only three days, but there’s the potential for a longer strike if a new labor contract is not reached after the contract extension runs out in mid-January,” said Jonathan Gold, National Retail Federation’s (NRF) vice president for supply chain and customs policy said. “That has retailers spending extra to bring in cargo early or continue shifting it to the West Coast to avoid any potential disruptions, much like they did earlier this year. And we’re hearing that some merchants will also move up shipments to avoid the costly tariff increases expected after Donald Trump returns to the White House. Neither of these developments is good for retailers, their customers or the economy.”

In October, the International Longshoremen’s Association briefly went on strike at East and Gulf Coast ports when the organization's contract with the U.S. Maritime Alliance expired. Longshoremen returned to work after the parties agreed to a wage increase and a contract extension until January 15. The parties are set to resume formal negotiations next week.

Last week, the NRF released a study that predicts tariff increases proposed by Trump could drive up consumer prices by $78 billion a year. In September, U.S. ports, excluding the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami covered by Global Port Tracker, handled 2.29 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) or one 20-foot container or its equivalent. That was down 1.3 percent from August but up 12.8 percent year over year.

Ports have not yet reported October’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month would see 2.13 million TEU, up 3.7 percent year over year. November is forecast at 2.15 million TEU, up 13.6 percent year over year, and December at 1.99 million TEU, up 6.1 percent. That would bring 2024 to 25.3 million TEU, up 13.6 percent compared with 2023.

January 2025 is forecast at 2.01 million TEU, up 2.5 percent year over year; February at 1.77 million TEU, down 9.3 percent due to fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories; and March at 2.01 million TEU, up 4.4 percent.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the potential for a January strike “can be seen in the continuing increases in U.S. imports from Asia, which have not fallen away as expected.” And worries over higher tariffs are a global concern, he said. Hackett Associates is a consulting firm that provides research and advisory services to the international maritime industry.

“We are witnessing elections around the world where discontent is leading to inward-looking policies that threaten trade with the almost certain potential for increasing tariffs,” Hackett said. “In the United States, this is particularly true with the election of Donald Trump, but it is not much different in Europe, with the EU calling for tariffs to be applied to a growing number of products from China.”