New data on retail sales from the U.S. Census Bureau shows consumers are feeling more confident about spending. Retail sales in October were up 0.4 percent seasonally, adjusted month-over-month and 2.8 percent year-over-year, compared with increases of 0.8 percent month-over-month and 2 percent year-over-year in September. Jack Kleinhenz, the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) chief economist, said this is a positive sign ahead of the holiday season. “October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” Kleinhenz said. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”

Meanwhile, core retail sales were unchanged on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis but were up 5.4 percent unadjusted year over year. According to the NRF, core sales were up 3.5 percent year over year for the first 10 months of 2024, in line with the NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent compared with 2023.

The NRF forecasts that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will also increase between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent compared with the same time last year. Nearly half of holiday shoppers surveyed said they began holiday shopping before November. The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, showed that core retail sales were up 0.83 percent month over month in October and up 4.59 percent year over year, compared with a decrease of 0.28 percent month over month and an increase of 0.94 percent year over year in September.

In a statement, the NRF noted that unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions, a company that provides real-time data from debit and credit cards to help marketers.