Food prices continue to soar, according to a new report from the United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA ERS). New data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Food, not seasonally adjusted, rose by 0.6 percent between February 2024 and March 2024. This was an increase of 3.5 percent from March 2023. 

Overall, the CPI for food rose 0.1 percent during the same time frame, while food prices rose 2.2 percent over March 2023. 

The CPI for grocery store and supermarket food purchases remained the same from February 2024 to March 2024, however, inflation was 1.2 percent higher than in March 2023. The restaurant purchase CPI was 0.3 percent higher in March 2024 and more than 4 percent higher compared with March 2023. 

The USDA ERS believes food prices will continue to decelerate into 2024, however, an increase of more than 2 percent overall is still expected. Grocery store prices are also predicted to rise by 1.2 percent, while restaurant prices are expected to rise by more than 4.3 percent. 

The report noted such strong increases have not been seen in more than 50 years. According to the USDA ERS, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates between the 1970s and early 2000s. By 2009, growth rates diverged while grocery store prices deflated by 2016 and 2017 while monthly restaurant prices rose consistently. 

In 2020, grocery store prices saw a significant increase, rising 3.5 percent while restaurant prices, sparked by the impact of the pandemic, increased 3.4 percent.  

In 2021, all food prices increased by 3.9 percent as prices began accelerating in the second half of the year. Prices remained steady throughout 2021, with no signs of returning to pre-pandemic rates. 

In 2022, food prices increased again by 9.9 percent, faster than any year since 1979. Grocery prices increased by 11.4 percent, and restaurant prices increased by 7.7 percent. 

These increases were the result of several features, including a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices. The conflict in Ukraine paired with economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs also added to the increases. As a result, all food price categories increased by more than 5 percent, and all food categories grew faster than their historical average rate.

By 2023, food prices had once again jumped by 5.8 percent, however, food price growth slowed in 2023 as economy-wide inflationary pressures, supply chain issues and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. 

Grocery store prices also continued to rise by 5 percent, while restaurant prices rose by more than 7 percent. 

The USDA ERS expected 2024 prices to increase due to greater volatility in farm- and wholesale-level prices, leading to wider prediction intervals for these products compared to retail-level products.