Auto sales are on the rise as consumer confidence returns post-pandemic, however, sales of vehicles are still lagging year over year. In March 2024, S&P Global Mobility reported an estimated sales pace at the seasonally adjusted rate of 15.5 million units for the first quarter, an average of 1.47 million units sold, falling short of 2023 sales figures of 15.7 million units at the same point last year. Experts believe these figures represent the continued volatility of the market.  

"With inventory growing, incentives rising, and quarter-end sales targets to be met, March sales volume will be relatively positive, rising to over 1.4 million units for just the second time in the past 34 months," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "However, since the second quarter of 2023, the pace of sales has been in a prolonged holding period, given the current purchase environment facing auto consumers. High interest rates, slowly receding vehicle prices and uncertain economic conditions continue to push against any consistent upshift for demand levels."

Matt Trommer, associate director of Market Reporting at S&P Global Mobility noted, "At the beginning of March, available dealer advertised inventories were up to 2.62 million units, an increase of 56 percent over last year and up 5 percent compared to the beginning of February 2023. Model-year (MY) 2024 vehicles represented 84 percent of that inventory, so pockets of MY 2023 vehicles remain, setting up the potential for additional spring clearance activity."

The S&P Global Mobility U.S. auto outlook for 2024 also indicates more moderate growth levels for light vehicle sales. Experts believe production levels will continue to rise following production shutdowns in 2023 and a fall in sales volume at year-end. 

"Advancing production levels set the stage for incentives and inventory to continue to develop, potentially enticing new vehicle buyers who remain on the sidelines due to higher interest rates, but it will be a bumpy ride and month-to-month sales volatility is likely," said Hopson. "S&P Global Mobility projects calendar-year 2024 light vehicle sales volume of 15.96 million units, a 3 percent increase from the 2023 tally."

Long-term, experts believe that battery-electric vehicles (BEV) will continue to propel sales upward as more consumers adopt the technology. 

It is expected that sales will remain on track as dealers and consumers continue to adjust to changes to IRA Federal tax credits set to begin next year. Sales are expected to continue to grow with the launch of several new BEVs including the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda Prologue and Fiat 500e, slated to hit the market in early 2024.