NEW YORK—It’s looking like a cheerful holiday season for retail in 2019, according to a Deloitte holiday retail survey. This year’s survey marks the 34th time that the firm has issued a holiday sales forecast, and this year’s shopping season looks to be as good as or better than most past holiday seasons.

In the survey, which polled 4,410 respondents across the United States, Deloitte found that the per-household holiday expenditure in 2019 will average $1,496, with the top 20 percent of households accounting for 60 percent of total dollars spent.

The survey also found that shoppers of all ages are more likely to shop on Cyber Monday than Black Friday, and are expected to spending 59 percent of their holiday budget online, compared with 36 percent in store.
Deloitte projects that e-commerce sales will rise 14 percent to 18 percent, significantly outpacing the 11.2 percent gain in 2018. Sales are projected to fall in a range of $144 billion to $149 billion. Use of smartphones for holiday shopping is expected to grow 6 percent, with other device use remaining flat.

According to the survey, two-thirds of consumers will start their holiday shopping journey online, with 58 percent of them using search engines as their main source for research.

A few other key takeaways from the Deloitte survey:

• The bulk of holiday spending ($596) will go to experiences and celebrations—including entertaining at home, socializing away from home, travel and restaurants.
• Promotions will influence 81 percent of consumers this holiday season.
• Approximately two-thirds of consumers (66 percent) will allocate spending to experiences.

“Every year, respondents tell us that the most important factor is discounts,” said Rod Sides, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. leader, retail, wholesale and distribution. “This year that tops out with not just promotions, but also free shipping. What is most fascinating is that we are also seeing an increase in the number of people who are using their phones not just to research products and discounts, but to ultimately make purchases. In fact, 70 percent of smartphone users said they will use their phone to make a purchase this holiday season.”